One of the most popular prop bets for the Super Bowl every year is the game’s first touchdown scorer, which is as exciting as it is unpredictable. It can also be a profitable bet for those who know how to follow the trends.
Last year, Odell Beckham Jr. was among the most popular bets to open the scoring after posting six touchdown catches in 10 games with the Rams. Sure enough, he found the end zone nine minutes into Super Bowl 56 – rewarding yours truly and the thousands of other football bettors who keyed in on the former All-Pro wideout.
There are a few players catching my eye this year, too, including a couple of potential winners at long-shot prices. Here are the best bets to score the first touchdown of Super Bowl 57, with odds courtesy of FanDuel:
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Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (+650)
Look, everyone and their mother is going to bet Kelce to score the game’s first touchdown, so I feel a little dirty recommending it, too. But the numbers simply don’t lie: Kelce is a clear value even at this number.
The superstar tight end finished with 12 touchdowns in the regular season and scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown in six of his 17 games (35.3 percent). He’s since opened the scoring for Kansas City in each of the team’s two postseason games, even with the opposing game plans focused entirely on stopping him from doing just that.
If you’re betting Kelce to score, I would rather bet on him to score the Chiefs’ first touchdown at +350, which is a better value than hoping the Eagles don’t strike first. Either way, Kelce is somehow still a value bet despite being the most obvious play in this market, so take advantage.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (+800)
We wrote about Hurts as one of our best bets to score an anytime touchdown earlier this week. So, naturally, we love his chances of scoring the game’s first touchdown, too.
The Eagles’ dual-threat star has been a touchdown machine this year, leading the team with 15 rushing touchdowns in his 17 starts including the postseason. That includes a ridiculous six times that he’s scored his team’s first touchdown – two more than any of his teammates.
Hurts scored the last touchdown for Philadelphia in last week’s win over the 49ers, and he’ll surely be a featured part of the game plan from the opening drive next Sunday. This is a short price to pay in such a volatile market, but for a surefire scorer like Hurts, it’s worth it.
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Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs (+1100)
Why in the world is McKinnon dealing at such a big number here? Yes, Isiah Pacheco has emerged as the Chiefs’ top rusher in most situations, but McKinnon is still clearly an integral part of this offense’s plan of attack early in games.
The diminutive rusher has scored Kansas City’s first touchdown a shocking five times already this season, including four times in the last eight weeks alone. McKinnon is good for 25-to-35 snaps per game and is a great bet to make an impact early on.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Eagles (+1800)
Though starting running back Miles Sanders was the one who reached the end zone twice last week, it was Gainwell who led the Eagles in carries (14), rushing yards (48) and total snaps (31). So why isn’t this price reflecting that?
Gainwell is dealing as a secondary option despite pacing his team in basically every rushing stat this postseason aside from touchdowns. That isn’t to say he can’t score: the second-year back reached the end zone in the divisional round and has scored his team’s first touchdown once already this season. At this price, he’s a stellar bet to do it again.
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